Jiang’s forecast rests on a grim logic rather than mysticism. He argues that Iran has spent two decades preparing for a grinding war of attrition, one where cheap drones and missiles bleed an overstretched superpower that is optimized for another century’s battles. In his view, America’s vast military budget becomes a weakness when million‑dollar interceptors are fired at weapons that cost a tiny fraction of that price. Over time, it is not the side with the largest arsenal that wins, but the one that can still afford to fight.
Beyond the battlefield, Jiang warns of a cascading economic shock. Desalination plants, oil terminals, and the Strait of Hormuz form pressure points that could choke water and energy supplies for millions, and rupture the petrodollar flows propping up parts of the U.S. economy. Whether his “psycho‑history” holds or not, his core message is stark: this war could mark the moment America’s aura of invincibility finally shatters, ushering in a harsher, multipolar world.